By George Friedman of Stratfor
U.S. President Barack Obama is making his first visit
to Israel as president. The visit comes in the wake of his re-election and
inauguration to a second term and the formation of a new Israeli government
under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Normally, summits between Israel and
the United States are filled with foreign policy issues on both sides, and there
will be many discussed at this meeting, including Iran, Syria and Egypt. But
this summit takes place in an interesting climate, because both the Americans
and Israelis are less interested in foreign and security matters than they are
in their respective domestic issues. In the United States, the political crisis over the federal budget and the struggle to grow the economy and reduce unemployment has dominated the president's and the country's attention. The Israeli elections turned on domestic issues, ranging from whether divinity students would be required to serve in Israel Defense Forces, as other citizens are, to a growing controversy over economic inequality in Israel.
Inwardness is a cyclic norm in most countries. Foreign policy does not always dominate the agenda and periodically it becomes less important. What is interesting is at this point, while Israelis continue to express concern about foreign policy, they are most passionate on divisive internal social issues. Similarly, although there continues to be a war in Afghanistan, the American public is heavily focused on economic issues. Under these circumstances the interesting question is not what Obama and Netanyahu will talk about but whether what they discuss will matter much.
WASHINGTON'S NEW STRATEGY
For the United States, the focus on domestic affairs is compounded by an emerging strategic shift in how the United States deals with the world. After more than a decade of being focused on the Islamic world and moving aggressively to try to control threats in the region militarily, the United States is moving toward a different stance. The bar for military intervention has been raised. Therefore, the United States has, in spite of recent statements, not militarily committed itself to the Syrian crisis, and when the French intervened in Mali the United States played a supporting role. The intervention in Libya, where France and the United Kingdom drew the United States into the action, was the first manifestation of Washington's strategic re-evaluation. The desire to reduce military engagement in the region was not the result of Libya. That desire was there from the U.S. experience in Iraq and was the realization that the disposal of an unsavory regime does not necessarily -- or even very often -- result in a better regime. Even the relative success of the intervention in Libya drove home the point that every intervention has both unintended consequences and unanticipated costs.
George Friedman
is the founder, chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO
of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Strategic Forecasting, Inc.,
has been dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the
world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with
geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate
risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500
companies and major governments.
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